“Papa Nutt, the Ben Bernanke of the operation, is offering discounts to Gathering vendors who accept the virtual moola; the hope is to establish it during the annual festival (‘No one wants to be the one vendor at Gathering of the Juggalos who doesn’t accept JuggaloCoin!’), move it to the ICP online store, and eventually so embed it in the culture that Juggalos can use it to purchase couches from each other on Craigslist (not kidding, that’s the example given).”
-Evan McMurry, “Juggalos Are Starting Their Own Cryptocurrency and You’re Not Invited.” Pretty sure this empirically falsifies the tenability of private currency.
“That’s why your range of projections has to be narrower than the expected standings. How much narrower? Over the past few seasons, the SD of team wins has been around 11. Actually, it fluctuates a fair bit (which is expected, due to luck and changing competitive balance). In 2002, it was over 14.5 wins; in 2007, it was as low as 9.3. But 11 is pretty typical. Since a team’s observed performance is the sum of talent and luck, and because talent and luck are independent, SD(observed)^2 = SD(talent)^2 + SD(luck)^2. Since SD(observed) equals 11, and SD(luck) = 6.4, we can figure that, after rounding, SD(talent) = 9 So: if a season prediction has an SD that’s significantly larger than 9, that’s a sign that someone is trying to predict which teams will be lucky. And that’s impossible.”
-Phil Birnbaum, “Predictions should be narrower than real life.”
“Under the Affordable Care Act, between six and eleven million workers would increase their disposable income by cutting their weekly work hours. About half of them would primarily do so by making themselves eligible for the ACA’s federal assistance with health insurance premiums and out-of-pocket health costs, despite the fact that subsidized workers are not able to pay health premiums with pre-tax dollars. The remainder would do so primarily by relieving their employers from penalties, or the threat of penalties, pursuant to the ACA’s employer mandate. Women, especially those who are not married, are more likely than men to have their short-term financial reward to full-time work eliminated by the ACA. Additional workers, beyond the six to eleven million, could increase their disposable income by using reduced hours to climb one of the ‘cliffs’ that are part of the ACA’s mapping from household income to federal assistance.”
-Casey Mulligan, “The ACA: Some Unpleasant Welfare Arithmetic.”